Analysis: What should the Chicago Bears offensive coordinator hire come down to?

CHICAGO, Ill. - The Chicago Bears’ offensive coordinator vacancy is becoming a crowded room of candidates.

That’s not necessarily a bad thing. The wider the net the better, especially as Bears head coach Matt Eberflus had specific criteria he wanted to see filled.

He wants a teacher, an innovator and someone that’s flexible with the offense at hand.

Given the list of candidates, should the Bears focus on an experienced candidate? Or should they try their best to bridge the gap between the franchise and a potential No. 1 overall pick?

The Bears are kicking the tires on the latter, interviewing USC quarterback coach Kliff Kingsbury who coached the Arizona Cardinals for four seasons.

It’s easy to point to Kingsbury’s tenure in Arizona and lose confidence in his candidacy as the Bears’ offensive coordinator. But, the reality is his offenses weren’t terrible during his time leading the Cardinals.

The worst Kingsbury offense in Arizona was in his fourth and final season. The Cardinals ranked 21st in the league in points per game, scoring 20 on average.

Until that season, Arizona’s offenses ranked 16th, 13th and 11th in the league in points per game in 2019, 2020 and 2021. Putting that in perspective, the Bears’ offenses haven’t had three consecutive years ranked in the top half of the league in points per game since the Mike Ditka era at the beginning of the 1990s.

You can go beyond just points, too. In 2020 and 2021, Kingsbury’s offenses ranked 6th and 8th in the league, respectively, in yards per game. When everything was going right, Kingsbury’s offenses moved the football.

The Bears have finished in the top 20 in the NFL in yards per game just three times – 2006, 2013 and 2016 – in the last 24 seasons.

In fact, much like at USC this past season, the defenses on the other side of the ball were what let Kingsbury down. In his final year in Arizona, Murray missed six games due to injury, including the last four after suffering an ACL tear, while the Cardinals' defense ranked 31st in the league in points allowed per game.

But, putting faith into a coordinator who operates with "air raid" influences in his pass-heavy scheme and never finished in the top 10 in points per game is a massive leap. Any statistic can look impressive enough if you frame it correctly.

Kingsbury would also be a hard diversion from the moves the Bears have made investing in its run game with Kahlil Herbert and Roschon Johnson.

Instead, this is why it would make the most sense for the Bears to focus on names like Shane Waldron and Klint Kubiak. 

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - JANUARY 08: (L-R) Head coach Sean McVay of the Los Angeles Rams talks with Offensive Coordinator Shane Waldron of the Seattle Seahawks prior to the game at Lumen Field on January 08, 2023 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Jane G

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Of the coordinators the Bears have interviewed – Waldron, Kubiak, Kingsbury, Liam Coen, Greg Roman, Greg Olson, Thomas Brown, Marcus Brady and Zac Robinson – six of them have backgrounds in quarterback development. It’s clear the Bears are making that a priority this offseason, and for good reason.

Kubiak was considered essential for the work he did building Brock Purdy up from being Mr. Irrelevant, the last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, to the starting quarterback for the No. 1 seed in the NFC under Kyle Shanahan.

Specifically look at Waldron, the Sean McVay pupil has the results to show for it.

In the last two seasons, the Seahawks defense finished 25th in the NFL in points allowed per game while Waldron was in charge of calling an offense with Geno Smith after Seattle moved on from Russell Wilson. In 2022, Smith threw for over 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns en route to winning the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year honor. 

If it’s impressive that Kingsbury’s offenses in the middle of the pack of the league would be three of the 10 best seasons of Bears offenses in the last 20 years, then consider this: Smith’s one season in 2022 would have broken multiple Bears single-season passing records.

It would have broken franchise records for single-season passing yards, passing touchdowns and pass completions. Smith also completed 69 percent of his throws, which would be the best completion percentage in Bears history for quarterbacks who have started at least 10 games in a season.

Not even Murray, under Kingsbury’s pass-happy offenses, put up those kinds of numbers.

During that season in 2022, Waldron’s offenses ranked 9th in the NFL in points per game. Seattle ranked 16th and 17th in 2021 and 2023, respectively.

Even in the years Waldron’s offenses didn’t rank in the top 10 of the league in points per game, they were one of the best teams in the league in terms of giveaways. In 2023, Seattle had the fifth-least amount of giveaways in the league.

Of all the offensive coordinator candidates, Waldron was the first the Bears reached out to interview.

What separates Waldron from someone like Luke Getsy is that Waldron has called plays before. His experience can’t be dismissed, and it’s shown when it comes to diversifying the offense.

Seattle had DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba to throw to on offense last season. All three finished the season with more than 90 targets and 60 receptions. Assuming the Bears take a receiver at some point in the 2024 NFL Draft and sign another in the offseason or resign Darnell Mooney, Waldron has experience spreading the wealth.

If the Bears are going to either integrate Fields into a new system or hand the keys to a rookie quarterback, Waldron has experience bringing a new quarterback up to speed. That fits what Eberflus is looking for in a teacher.

That might be what the search could come down to.

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