What should expectations be for Caleb Williams? The Chicago Bears rookie just wants to buck a bad trend

LAKE FOREST, Ill. - It's been a while since Caleb Williams played in a game with actual stakes involved.

In fact, it was last November.

He'll finally put some chips down for the Chicago Bears this Sunday against the Tennessee Titans. In case any Bears fans were worried, Williams hasn't forgotten the primary objective.

"Last time I remembered, the wins are the most important thing," Williams said. "As long as we get that win at the end of the day, 100 yards, 400, it all becomes the same. Go in the locker room, you celebrate, you cheer." 

In eying a win, Williams is looking to buck a consistent trend.

Rookie quarterbacks have a 16-35-1 record in NFL season openers. In the past five seasons, that record sits winless at 0-7-1. 

The last rookie quarterback to win a Week 1 start was Sam Darnold for the New York Jets against Detroit on Monday Night Football in 2018. That number gets more precarious for No. 1 overall selections.

The last quarterback selected No. 1 overall to win the season opener in his rookie year was Houston Texans' David Carr beating the Dallas Cowboys 19-10. Quarterbacks picked No. 1 overall are 0-8-1 in Week 1 since 2002. Kyler Murray earned the tie for Arizona in 2019.

Beyond Carr, New England's Jim Plunkett in 1971 and Denver's John Elway in 1983 were the only other quarterbacks picked No. 1 overall to win their season openers as a rookie.

Could the Bears win with a more experienced quarterback leading the charge? Maybe. Tyson Bagent has won an NFL game, but that was with a different offensive coordinator.

Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams jokes with teammates during training camp at Halas Hall on Wednesday, Aug. 7, 2024, in Lake Forest, Illinois. (Stacey Wescott/Chicago Tribune/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

Bears head coach Matt Eberflus nipped any quarterback competition in the bud in May after Williams was drafted, naming him QB1 without even playing a game. Eberflus said that's a lesson he learned from College Football Hall of Fame coach Gary Pinkel when Eberflus coached under Pinkel at the University of Missouri.

"One of the lessons was, play the young guys," Eberflus said. "If they are good enough play them, they get experience and man it’ll be beneficial for them down the road. The second thing was, put the skill in position to make plays."

The Bears have plenty of skill to help Williams out, especially on a defense that aims to be a top-10 unit in the NFL.

The experience is what the Bears are hoping will come quick. 

"They will do more than you think they can," Eberflus said. "That’s exactly what we are trying to do. Put them in positions to make plays in space and let their God-given abilities make it a better play than what we even designed.

History is not on Williams' side Sunday.

But, history also hasn't seen many quarterbacks picked No. 1 overall play with multiple Pro Bowl receivers and a top-10 defense.

Williams knows that he doesn't need to be perfect to win a game. He doesn't even need to be the best player on the team.

He just has to do what's asked of him. 

"As long as we get a win," Williams said. "You got your 24-hour period to enjoy the win, and then from there you move on and get ready for the next team."