000
FXUS63 KIND 151436
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1036 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH COOLER LESS HUMID AIR AS WELL. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT IN NORTHWEST INDIANA AND THEN WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
U.S. FLATTENS LEAVING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
ONGOING FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.
SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS AN AREA OF STRATOCU STILL LINGERING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE AREA APPEARS TO
BE SLOWLY DECAYING AS HEATING RESUMES THIS MORNING. SURFACE
ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES PULLING AWAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WAS PROVIDING A COOLER NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO CENTRAL
INDIANA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD CAP IN PLACE TODAY DUE TO A MID
LEVEL INVERSION AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S...WHICH WILL
NOT BE REACHED. THUS WILL CONTINUE ONGOING TRENDS IN THE
FORECAST...SKIES BECOMING SUNNY AS THE STRATOCU DECK DECAYS.
ONGOING TEMP FORECAST LOOKS ON THE MARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL GENERALLY USE A CONSENSUS UNLESS
OTHERWISE MENTIONED BELOW.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE
RULE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WENT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
FOR THURSDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ADVECTING IN ALOFT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE NAM AND PREFER IT/S
TIMING. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WITH WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE. NO STRONG FEATURES
TO KEY ON SO WILL STICK CLOSE TO CONSENSUS POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. DO THINK CHANCES WILL BE BEST IN THE NORTH
WITH MORE SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLE HEADING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE UPPER
RIDGE.
ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE ABOUT GOING WITH GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE 90S
FOR FRIDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS/THUNDERSTORMS TO GET IN
THE WAY OF PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT
850 MB AND THOSE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO 20-22C WILL STICK WITH
GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURE AND POP CHALLENGES AS MODELS
AGREE THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL RETURN TO WHAT IS WAS LAST WEEKEND
AND THE START OF THIS WEEK. THAT IS...AN UPPER DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS COMING WEEKEND AND
AMPLIFY ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW AND PERIODIC CHANCES FOR MESOSCALE
SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE HANDLED THE PATTERN BETTER OF LATE AS THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN LESS PROGRESSIVE THEREBY NOT HANDLING THE
PERSISTENT AND UNUSUAL PATTERN AS WELL. ACTIVE EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY BE PARTIALLY TO BLAME PER THE WPC EXTENDED
DISCUSSION.
WITH THAT SAID...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY OR LATER AND MOISTURE STREAMS OVER TOP
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE...FROM DELORES. IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST
GULF LOW LEVEL FLOW...ALBEIT IT MODEST...WILL PRECEDE THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...BRINGING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS WEEKEND. COULD SEE PLUS 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES AND PLUS 100
DEGREE HEAT INDICES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
CONSEQUENTLY...MAY NEED HEAT HEADLINES EVENTUALLY FOR THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /UPDATE TO 151200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
HAVE AMENDED ALL TAFS. KIND HAS LIFTED ABOVE 1000 FT WITH A BROKEN
SKY WHILE REMAINING SITES ARE BELOW 1000 FT. SATELLITE SHOWS
THINNING OF DECK IN PROGRESS BUT STILL SHOULD TAKE UNTIL 1530Z-
1600Z BEFORE OVERCAST BECOMES BROKEN AND AS HEATING CONTINUES
THESE DECKS SHOULD RISE ABOVE 1000 FT.
BY 151800Z CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE FULLY EVOLVED INTO A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUD COVER AT OR ABOVE 3000 FEET.
WINDS TO REMAIN FROM NNE UNDER 10 KTS AND GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NE
TO E OVERNIGHT.
STILL ANTICIPATE MVFR FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY 160800Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...TUCEK
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Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 10:36AM EDT