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Chicago weather outlook: First comes snow, then bitter cold
Tim McGill takes a look at the Chicago weather forecast, which begins with a significant snowstorm on Friday and then brutally cold temps that sink in over the weekend.
Chicago - Winter in Chicago is just getting started. Tuesday saw the biggest snowfall of the season so far. 2.8" fell at O'Hare for the most in a single day so far this winter.
Chicago's total snowfall so far this season is 8". Tuesday's system helped drop our snowfall deficit to 2.8" below average. The hardest hit areas saw between 2 and 5 inches.
Temperatures held around or just above freezing most of the day, so a lot of snow melted as it hit the ground.
Most computer models are suggesting an even more significant snowstorm for Friday and continuing into early Saturday morning.
If these models verify, it could be the biggest snowstorm in at least three years. This will be followed by frigid air with the coldest temperatures of the season so far.
Let's talk about Friday's snow first. It could have a big impact here.
NOAA's Weather Prediction Center suggests anything from minor to moderate and even major impacts from Friday's storm.
The minor impacts would be along the lakefront, some suburbs well south of the city, and in northwest Indiana. These are areas that will see more of a mix of rain and snow.
The rest of the area will probably have moderate to major impacts. By definition, that means "considerable disruptions to daily life". It also means "dangerous or impossible driving conditions".
The areas shaded in red could possibly see blizzard conditions at times later Friday afternoon into Friday night. The snow should begin before daybreak but may mix at times or even turn to all rain for areas near and south of the city.
Later in the day, it will all transition over to snow as colder air crashes in.
Our Fox Model is forecasting anywhere between 2 and 12 inches of snow by Saturday morning. The heaviest amounts are expected west, north, and northwest of Chicago. In and around the city, it spits out 2 to 4 inches of new snow.
The GFS model forecasts a heavier and more widespread snow event. It squeezes out 10 to 16 inches of snow for most areas. It was too aggressive with Tuesday's system, so this is a little suspect to me.
These numbers are not carved in snow and models are known to have some dramatic fluctuations leading up to a storm. The takeaway here is that parts of the area will probably receive half a foot of snow or more by Saturday morning.
If you don't keep up with clearing the slush and snow off your driveway and sidewalks, it will likely be frozen solid by early Saturday.
A dramatic drop in temperatures begins Saturday with the worst of the cold crashing in Sunday and lingering through Tuesday.
Our Fox Model 10-day temperature forecast has highs falling into the single digits from Sunday through Tuesday and again on Thursday and Friday next week. Lows Sunday morning will dip near or below zero for most of us.
Lows will likely dip below zero on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday morning too.
Bitter cold is coming for sure, but no records are expected to fall. Here are the record lows for some of these dates:
- -14 for Sunday, January 14th
- -15 for Monday, January 15th
- -25 for Tuesday, January 16th
- -23 for Wednesday, January 17th
The record low of -25 that occurred on January 16th back in 1982 is the third-coldest temperature ever recorded in Chicago. This was part of a record cold snap that dropped the mercury to -27 on January 20, 1985, the coldest temperature ever recorded here.
No new records are expected, but this will still be a shock to our systems. December had only two days dip below average and ended up nearly 9 degrees above average overall for the month. January is running more than 6 degrees above average, and we have yet to have even one day dip below normal so far this month.
The Climate Prediction Center's long-range temperature outlooks are covered in cold shades of blue. These are areas favored to be below average over the coming couple of weeks. In other words, this cold that is coming may stick around for a couple of weeks.
The 6-10 day temperature outlook forecasts northern Illinois and Indiana to be "likely below" normal overall. We have at least an 80% probability of being colder than average overall. This covers the period from next Monday through the following Saturday.
The 8-14 day temperature outlook also has us "likely below" normal overall. This covers the period from next Thursday through the following Wednesday.
These forecasts don't rule out an occasional day sneaking above average, but the overall outlook is for the cold pattern to hang around. Winter will be digging in over the next few days.