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Tim's Weather Takeaways: Chicago's mild winter could fall among warmest
Our "mild" winter shows no sign of turning ugly. It has been a breeze so far. A colder pattern is coming but nothing to drastically change the character of this winter in Chicago.
CHICAGO - Monday marks Chicago's 22nd straight day with above-average temperatures. If winter were to end today, this would rank as the 2nd warmest winter on record, behind only the winter of 1877-1878.
It's hard to get a ton of snow when our winter is this warm overall. In total this season, we have seen 17.3 inches of snow at O'Hare. That is just over a half foot below average. If we don't see any more snow through February, this would rank as the 32nd least snowy winter on record. That would rank nearly in the top 30% of the least snowy winters. In other words, this winter has been a breeze.
Solid black line represents this winter's "misery index".
The Midwest Regional Climate Center agrees. They use something called the "Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index" or AWSSI (or "misery index") to gauge the relative severity of a winter.
They keep an ongoing tally and rank the winter based on five categories. The categories, in order from least miserable to most miserable, include mild, moderate, average, severe, and extreme. Through nearly the middle of February, this winter is firmly in the "mild" category. Very simply, the higher the number, the worse the winter.
To put our current standing into perspective, the highest the index has reached through Sunday's date is 1082. The lowest it has been for this period is 189. As of Sunday, our AWSSI stands at 245.
We are expecting a colder pattern to kick in just in time for the weekend. However, just one day out of the next eleven is forecast to have a high temperature below average, according to our Fox Model. Saturday's high of 31 would be about 5 degrees below average. We bounce back fairly quickly, with highs climbing back into the 40s again by Tuesday.
The longer-range temperature outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center also hint at a relatively cooler pattern coming.
The 6-10 day temperature outlook forecasts northern Illinois and Indiana to be "leaning below" normal overall. This covers the period from next Saturday through the following Wednesday. That is the most blue I have seen on this outlook in quite some time. It isn't a strong cold signal, but it does corroborate what our Fox model is thinking.
The 8-14 day temperature outlook shows the relatively cooler pattern hanging around well into the month. It also forecasts Chicago to be "leaning below" average. This covers the period from next Monday through the following Sunday. Beyond this period, the Climate Prediction Center suggests we may see a relatively mild pattern return.
The 3-4 week temperature outlook favors us to be above average for the last six days of February and just beyond the first week of March. Don't let your guard down too soon. Meteorological spring normally brings some snow. We average almost six inches of snow for the month of March and just over an inch for the month of April. It's been as cold as -12 in March. Don't put away the shovel or winter jackets just yet.