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Cold pattern coming for Chicago?
February has been fantastic if you like your winters on the warmer side but models are signaling a cold change could be coming for March.
CHICAGO - Meteorological spring might start on Wednesday, but we probably aren't done with wintry weather just yet. To find out more about the forecast for this spring you can check out this post.
For many days this month February felt more like March. The month is now trending around 5 degrees above average. Monday's weather was more spring-like with several rumbles of thunder to start off the day.
We've enjoyed a relatively mild pattern overall for the bulk of February. It has been nice, but Chicagoans know how quickly things can change. Models are hinting at a colder pattern that could be coming around the middle of March.
The National Blend of Models temperature forecast through a week from Thursday resembles a rollercoaster ride. There are a couple of colder days forecast that include this Thursday and Friday and then the following Wednesday and Thursday when highs hit only the middle to upper 30s. Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 40s so it would be just a bit below average. Models suggest a more substantial pattern shift for the middle of March.
The Climate Prediction Center's long-range temperature outlook has an expanding blob of blue shifting in our direction. Shades of blue on these maps mean parts of the country that should be colder than average overall.
The 6-10 day temperature outlook has us "near normal" overall from Saturday through the following Wednesday.
The 8-14 day temperature outlook is "singing the blues" for more of the country. Notice the area forecast to be below average overall now expands more east and south to include Chicago. We are forecast to be "leaning below" average overall from next Monday through the following Sunday.
The longer range 3-4 week temperate outlook covers nearly the entire country in blue. This is a strong signal for colder air coming by the middle of the month. There is a 70 to 80 percent probability we will be below average overall from March 11 through March 24.
This could be the atmosphere's reaction to a "sudden stratospheric warming" which has been the subject of much chatter in the meteorological community. So some potentially good news for snow lovers. Remember that we average nearly 6 inches of snow for the month of March. The temperatures forecast for the middle of next month would certainly support some snow.