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Chicago - It has officially snowed nine times at O'Hare since the start of November but not enough has accumulated to give us measurable snow (.1" or more). We are closing in on a new record for the latest date to receive our first measurable snow. The all-time record latest snowfall for Chicago was set nine years ago when it took until December 20th to squeeze out that first measurable snow.
The accumulating snow frequency graphic below shows the number of times a tenth of an inch of snow has fallen on any particular day from 1884-2019. The "spikes" reach their highest level during the months of December, January and February. This helps illustrate just how rare the lack of snowfall has been this year. O'Hare is down 3.3" of snowfall below average for the month and 5.3" below average since the start of October.
Based on the prospects for snow the next several days (more on that below), this December could end up among the top ten least snowiest Decembers on record. There have only been three winters with just a trace of snow (1889,1912 and 2014) on record in Chicago. There have been just 11 winters with less than an inch of snowfall.
Climatologically speaking, December is the 3rd snowiest month (7.6" average snowfall) of the year behind January (11.3" average snowfall) and February (10.7" average snowfall). Annual snowfall for the year is just over 37".
There is a chance for some light snow overnight Friday into early Saturday. It may mix with some rain at times too. The GFS model is more generous with its snowfall forecast and lays down an inch or two for most of the area.
The European model is more stingy with snowfall this weekend. It lays down just a few tenths of an inch.
I want to end on a hopeful note for all the snow lovers out there. You know who you are. I am no longer a member of that club. I ran out the GFS model total snowfall accumulation forecast through Christmas day into the following Sunday morning. It is forecasting about four to eight inches of snow (in addition to this Saturday's system) that weekend with most of it falling on Christmas day. Could a white Christmas be coming? Stay tuned. Still very early to have much confidence in the forecast but it is fun dream about.