Chicago - It's hard for me to comprehend but I do know there are people who like wintry weather. They yearn for the cold and snow that Chicago so often sees this time of year. We have mostly been spared from that so far this meteorological winter. We have had just two days with highs in the 30s and one with highs in the 20s this December. So far the month is running 5.2° above average. Monday will be our fifth straight day with temperatures above average and that streak could easily hit nine straight days by the end of this week.
Monday and Tuesday will be relatively mild with highs in the lower 50s that feel more like early November than early December. The warmth that comes Wednesday is a whole norther level. The map below shows the GFS model's temperature anomaly forecast for Wednesday afternoon. It shows temperatures around 30° to 35° above average in northern Illinois. That means highs at least in the middle 60s. The record high for Wednesday is 64° and it goes all the way back to 1971. What is even more remarkable is that we could tie or break a record high in the middle of December without the benefit of abundant sunshine. Wednesday should actually be cloudy with light rain. Gusty southerly winds will help those temperatures soar into the 60s. Winds could gust over 30 mph.
We won't be the only ones seeing unusually warm December weather Wednesday. Everyone east of the Rockies is expected to be above average.
The best I can tell wintry weather fans is to hang on until the weekend. We will finally see temperatures settle back to about average with highs Saturday and Sunday in the middle 30s. There is still no bitter cold air or big snow in sight. O'Hare has reported a trace of snow on ten days since the start of November but has not officially had any measurable snow. We need at least a tenth of an inch to fall for that to happen. A trace of snow is less than a tenth of an inch.
The National Blend Of Models daily high and low forecast for the next eleven days shows a stretch of days with about average temperatures from Saturday through next Thursday. Models are hinting at some light snowfall Monday and Tuesday that could stick but at this point it does not look like a major storm.
Looking longer range at temperatures suggests this overall milder than average pattern could continue through the first week of January. The GEFS 30-day temperature anomaly forecast suggests we will be around 3° to 4° above average overall through the first ten days of January.
I'll keep looking for any prospects of a white Christmas but for now, don't bet on it.