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Squeezing out more winter weather in Chicago this week
Chicago's wintry weather isn't done yet. Some changes in our weather pattern are coming later this week that will bring sticking snow and near zero wind chills.
CHICAGO - I think the groundhog was a little off this year with the forecast he made in early February. He saw his shadow, which is supposed to portend six more weeks of winter.
We may squeeze out some more wintry weather this week in Chicago, but most of the remaining days of the season should feel more like March and the beginning of spring. The way our winter temperatures are trending, this could end up being among the top 15 warmest meteorological winters on record.
We started the week off with temperatures nearly 20 degrees above average and highs will again hit the lower 50s on Tuesday. Enjoy it while you can because it will be frigid by Friday morning.
Forecast wind chills for 5 AM Friday morning
Wind chills could dip to near or just below zero. In other words, it will feel nearly 50 degrees colder by then compared to our warm start to the week.
Cold is coming and so is some snow. Snow lovers could desperately use some of the white stuff.
If we didn't pick up any more snow the rest of this season, this winter would tie as the 10th least snowy on record. We have to go over 90 years to find a winter that had as little snow as this one if that was the case.
There is some hope though for fans of snow.
GFS Model total snowfall accumulation forecast through 1 AM Friday morning
We aren't done with snow yet for this season. Some sticking snow is on the way for Thursday into possibly early Friday morning.
I ran the GFS model total snowfall forecast through early Friday morning. It's squeezing out a dusting to nearly four inches of new snowfall for northern Illinois. The heavier amounts of that range would fall in northern Lake and McHenry counties.
Fox Model total snowfall accumulation forecast through 1 AM Friday morning
Our Fox Model is showing similar snowfall numbers. It spits out about a dusting to nearly three inches. It also favors our far northern suburbs for the heavier end of that range.
GFS Model total snowfall forecast through the evening of February 27th
Just for fun, I continued to run out the GFS model to nearly the end of February.
Many models are suggesting a "sudden stratospheric warming" that could bring us another round of bitterly cold air by the end of this month. That would increase the odds for some additional snowfall after this week's round.
The GFS model is suggesting another 2 to 4 inches of snowfall on top of what is expected this week. Don't forget this is a long range snowfall forecast and these numbers will most likely change, but it is consistent with the kind of impact we would expect from an SSW.
Our Fox model shows a rollercoaster ride of high temperatures over the next 11 days. We fall Friday into the 20s then bounce back this weekend before falling back below average for the middle of next week.
The Climate Prediction Center's long-range temperature outlook also hints that our relatively mild pattern may be breaking down towards the end of the month.
The 6-10 day temperature outlook keeps the mild air coming from this Sunday through the following Thursday. It has us "likely above" average overall during this period. The change comes a little later.
The 8-14 day temperature outlook starts to show a possible shift in the pattern. Only our far southern suburbs are "leaning above" average overall from next Tuesday through the following Monday. Most of northern Illinois is expected to be "near normal".
The tans and browns representing areas favored to be above average are slipping away to the east while the blue shades representing areas favored to be below average are advancing in our direction. Those blues are covering more of the country and their shades are getting darker.
This means higher probabilities of colder than average temperatures and an expansion of this colder pattern in our direction.