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CHICAGO - In my nearly 30 years of forecasting in Chicago, if I had a dime for every time a storm turned more left than expected on computer models I could afford a Grande beverage from Starbucks.
Such is the case with what I’m calling the Ground Hog +1 Winter Storm since it will impact both tomorrow and perhaps to a lesser extent Thursday.
The Winter Storm Warning now includes the city of Chicago along with most of Cook County. DuPage, Will, Kendall and LaSalle counties have been added to the winter storm warning area where more than 6 inches of snow is expected. In Indiana, Lake and Porter counties are also covered by the warning, according to the National Weather Service.
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Indeed, there may very well be double-digit totals particularly in the I-80 corridor and points south. The heart of the metro area looks like an easy 6 to 10 inches.
Spotty light rain breaks out Tuesday afternoon, favoring areas from the city and south. Rain quickly changes over to all snow (no sleet/freezing rain) and continues overnight through most of the day Wednesday.
The highest rate of snow, up to an inch per hour, is expected after midnight through early Wednesday afternoon, according to the National Weather Service.
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Due to the weather, several Amtrak lines in and out of Union Station will be out of service Wednesday and Thursday. Click here for a full list.
There should be at least a lull Wednesday night as part two of the storm system approaches. That phase may very well stay south of most of Chicagoland on Thursday.
Some lake-effect snow is likely, however, on the Illinois side but additional amounts should be fairly light. The key message is that a significant snowfall is likely late Tuesday through Wednesday evening. Both rush hours Wednesday will be difficult.
The biggest numbers when all is said and done will be well south of Chicago into central Illinois. Somebody in those areas downstate could get close to two feet.
Thursday doesn’t appear as troubling for the local area. Beyond the GH+1, its cold with highs in the 20s and single-digit lows for a couple of days. No thaw in sight after Tuesday.
The Sun-Times Media Wire contributed to this report.