Will we need a scraper or shovel in Chicago this weekend?

CHICAGO - We put a dent in the snowfall deficit this week in the Chicago area.

On Wednesday, 3.6 inches of snow fell and that was followed by .8 of an inch on Thursday. That brings our total for the month of January to 6.3 inches, or 3 inches below average so far.

We could close that gap this weekend. The gap is much bigger for the entire snowfall season though. As of Thursday, we have picked up 10.6 inches for the season. The average snowfall through this part of the season is 18.9 inches.

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Most of our computer models squeeze out about a half inch to an inch of snowfall for Friday. The models aren't in total agreement in terms of amounts for this weekend's snow, but they basically agree on the timing. Most of the models have the bulk of the snow falling between 3 p.m. Saturday and around 5 a.m. Sunday.  

GFS Model Snowfall Forecast Through Sunday Morning

The GFS model squeezes out about 2 to nearly 5 inches for most of northern Illinois in total through Sunday morning. A half to nearly an inch of that would be falling on Friday. That would mean about 2 to 4 inches would fall late Saturday into Sunday morning.

Fox Model Snowfall Forecast Through Sunday Morning

Our Fox model is more stingy with the snow. It squeezes out just a tenth of an inch to around 2 inches total through Sunday morning. Subtracting out about a tenth of an inch to .75 of an inch for Friday's snowfall yields just another tenth of an inch to a little more than an inch for our weekend snow. The "heavier" end of that range would fall near the Wisconsin state line.

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Accumulated Snowfall Meteogram For O'Hare

A meteogram for O'Hare is a helpful visual that shows several model solutions for snowfall. The range of snowfall for Friday is generally around a half inch to an inch. The range of snowfall for this weekend is between about an inch to nearly 5 inches.

There is a real wildcard for our weekend snow. The setup for snowfall includes some dynamics that could potentially spit out a narrow band of 6 inches or even more accumulation. That would probably be focused near the Wisconsin state line in our far northern suburbs.

So the shovel is probably more likely to be used in areas north of the city this weekend while you might get by with just a scraper south.