Chicago gun violence becoming deadlier despite fewer shootings, analysis finds

CHICAGO - A recent analysis of gun violence in Chicago has revealed a disturbing trend: the likelihood of surviving a shooting has decreased over the past 13 years.

According to the study, a person shot in Chicago today is more likely to die from their injuries than in 2010, a trend especially apparent in the city’s Black and Brown communities on the South and West Sides.

The report, published by The Trace, a nonprofit newsroom focused on gun violence, draws on data from the City of Chicago Violence Reduction Dashboard and studies by the University of Chicago Crime Lab. In 2010, out of every 100 people shot in the city, 13 died. By 2023, that number had risen to 19 out of 100, signaling that shootings have become more deadly, even as the total number of shootings has occasionally declined.

The analysis points to several factors behind the increase.

"Some of the reasons that we found that fatal shootings are growing in Chicago is because of… the more access there is to deadlier weapons, and also just the easy access to modifying weapons to make them more lethal. And then on top of that… more young people are carrying guns and you combine that all together and it's creating more fatal shootings," said Rita Oceguera, from The Trace.

The report also highlights a shortage of resources for young people, particularly in high-violence areas. The lack of recreational activities, mental health services, and other support systems has contributed to the rise in violence, according to The Trace's findings.

Next week, The Trace plans to release a follow-up report that will focus on the human toll of this violence, exploring how it impacts communities and proposing solutions that could help save lives.