Which Supreme Court justices are likely to retire next?

The Supreme Court ended its term July 1 after handing down a cluster of consequential opinions in a busy final few weeks.

Meanwhile, Americans revealed in a new poll a lack of confidence in the high court and their handling of key issues before them. 

Political experts are theorizing that whoever wins the presidential election could have a chance to fill one or two vacancies on the Supreme Court, a theory that even President Joe Biden has drawn attention to

Who could those justices be, and would they be more likely to retire under a Biden presidency or a Trump presidency? Here is where each justice stands with his or her career, and the likelihood of retirement:

Current Supreme Court justices

  • John Roberts, Jr., Chief Justice - Nominated by President George W. Bush in 2005
  • Clarence Thomas - Nominated by President George H.W. Bush in 1991
  • Samuel Alito, Jr. - Nominated by President George W. Bush in 2006
  • Sonia Sotomayor - Nominated by President Barack Obama in 2009
  • Elena Kagan - Nominated by President Barack Obama in 2010
  • Neil Gorsuch - Nominated by President Donald Trump in 2017
  • Brett Kavanaugh - Nominated by President Donald Trump in 2018
  • Amy Coney Barrett - Nominated by President Donald Trump in 2020
  • Ketanji Brown Jackson - Nominated by President Joe Biden in 2022

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Can Supreme Court justices retire? 

Yes, Supreme Court justices are able to retire. 

According to the Supreme Court website, the average number of years that justices serve on the court is 16.

The Supreme Court justice most recently to retire was Justice Stephen Breyer in 2022 at the age of 83, after a nearly 28-year career. President Biden named his successor Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson.

The other instance where justices are replaced is after their passing, which was the case with Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in 2020. She died at the age of 87 after a 27-year career. Former President Donald Trump named her successor Justice Amy Coney Barrett. 

Age of Supreme Court justices

FILE - United States Supreme Court Associate Justice Sonia Sotomayor (L) and Associate Justice Clarence Thomas (R) pose for their official portrait at the East Conference Room of the Supreme Court building on October 7, 2022 in Washington, D.C. (Phot

  • John Roberts, Jr., Chief Justice - 69
  • Clarence Thomas - 76
  • Samuel Alito, Jr. - 74
  • Sonia Sotomayor - 70
  • Elena Kagan - 64
  • Neil Gorsuch - 56
  • Brett Kavanaugh - 59
  • Amy Coney Barrett - 52
  • Ketanji Brown Jackson - 53

Justice Sonia Sotomayor

Although Justice Sonia Sotomayor isn’t the oldest or longest-serving justice on the bench, she’s the one some Democrats are zeroing in on to strategically retire under a Biden presidency.

Sotomayor, 70, was nominated by President Barack Obama, so she’s served for 15 years, which is in line with the average length of a Supreme Court Justice career. 

Some political pundits are calling for her to retire now under Biden’s presidency to guarantee a Democratic president can name her successor.

Justice Elena Kagan

In the middle of the group age-wise at 64, Justice Elena Kagan has also seen some calls to strategically retire under a Biden presidency for the same reason. 

She’s served on the court for just about as long as Sotomayor has, being appointed in 2010. 

Justice Clarence Thomas 

At 76, Justice Clarence Thomas is the oldest serving justice and is among the longest serving associate justices ever. He’s been on the court since 1991, marking a 33-year career on the court. The associate justice with the longest career was William Douglas, who served for 36 years until 1975. 

Given those two factors, Thomas is the most favorable justice from a career standpoint. Given his well-known conservative standing and that he was nominated by a Republican president, he’d be more likely to retire under a Trump presidency.                          

Justice Samuel Alito

At 74, Justice Samuel Alito is the next oldest serving justice and has been on the court for 18 years. 

He could also be a likely candidate to soon retire. Given his conservative standing and that he was nominated by a Republican president, he’d be more likely to retire under a Trump presidency.                          

Chief Justice John Roberts Jr. 

At 69, Chief Justice John Roberts Jr. is among the older justices and has been on the court for 17 years. 

He could also be a likely candidate to soon retire. Given his conservative standing and that he was nominated by a Republican president, he’d be more likely to retire under a Trump presidency. 

Justice Neil Gorsuch

At 59 years old and only seven years into his Supreme Court career, Justice Neil Gorsuch isn’t a likely candidate to retire. 

Justice Brett Kavanaugh 

At 56 years old and only six years into his Supreme Court career, Justice Neil Gorsuch isn’t a likely candidate to retire. 

Justice Amy Coney Barrett 

At 52 years old and only four years into her Supreme Court career, Justice Amy Coney Barrett isn’t a likely candidate to retire. 

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson 

At 53 years old and only two years into her Supreme Court career, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson isn’t a likely candidate to retire. 

This story was reported from Detroit. The Associated Press contributed.