Why Shōta Imanaga could be a major steal for the Cubs

CHICAGO, Ill. - Three months ago, the Chicago Cubs shocked the baseball world with a managerial switch-a-roo for the ages. In a one-day precision strike, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer fired four-year skipper David Ross and hired the coveted Craig Counsell, formerly of the Milwaukee Brewers, for a record-breaking sum of money.

The move divided the baseball world, sending Milwaukee baseball fans into an understandable fury and breaking the financial ceiling for baseball managers. Perhaps most importantly, the Ross for Counsell swap signaled a new era in Cubs baseball. Chicago was done playing around; it was, once again, time to compete on the North Side.

But since then, the Cubbies had remained silent. Until Tuesday.

Multiple outlets reported that the Cubs have reached an agreement with free-agent hurler Shōta Imanaga. The 30-year-old left-hander has been one of the most dominant pitchers in Japan over the past half-decade and is projected by most of the industry as a mid-rotation option in the bigs.

The exact terms of his contract details are unclear, with both The Athletic and the New York Post reporting that the deal is "complicated" and includes a number of escalators that could take Imanaga's earnings up to around $80 million dollars. MLB.com reported that the base salary is set to fall in the $15 million range annually.

This winter, Imanaga was understandably overshadowed by two of his countrymen, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who each received historic, record-breaking megadeals. But there was reportedly serious league-wide interest in Imanaga, who seemed poised to blast through the four-year, $60 million contract range most outlets projected for him at the beginning of free agency. 

Bidding had heated up enough that the latest projections had him potentially earning $100 million. That makes his actual deal with the Cubs look like a relative steal.

Imanaga's surface level NPB numbers and age made him a notably less desirable piece than Yamamoto, who, at age 25, had won three consecutive Sawamura Awards (NPB's Cy Young equivalent). But Imanaga is no slouch; he has a 2.79 ERA over 630 innings since 2019 and led all NPB pitchers, including Yamamoto, in strikeouts last season. And while he lacks the raw athleticism and fastball velocity of his World Baseball Classic teammate, there are reasons to believe Imanaga should have a significant and immediate impact for the Cubs.

His pitch data, from both his time in NPB and the 2023 WBC offers valuable insight into how exactly Imanaga will go about his craft in 2024 and beyond. 

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - NOVEMBER 13: Craig Counsell is introduced as the Chicago Cubs new manager at Wrigley Field on November 13, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images)

Let's begin with Imanaga's four-seam fastball, which lacks high-end velocity, but has some of the most enticing movement characteristics we've ever seen. In 2023, Imanaga's heater sat in the 92-93 range, but he still threw it a whopping 54% of the time, which would put him in the top 10 in MLB in terms of four-seam usage. Experts project that pitch to be incredibly effective, despite its relative lack of velocity, because of an impressive amount of ride.

According to data provided by Marquee's Lance Brozdowski, Imanaga's four-seam fastball averages around 20 inches of vertical break, which would make it one of the most "on plane" heaters in all of MLB right away. Only Félix Bautista and Colin Poche (both relievers) had a better vertical break than Imanaga in 2023. Add to that Imanaga's short stature and low release point — he's listed at 5-foot-10, but the ball comes out five feet, five inches above the ground — and the pitch has a chance to give big-league hitters fits if he can locate it at and above the top of the strike zone. 

Very few left-handed pitchers feature a fastball with that type of movement profile from that type of release point. The uniqueness of his fastball makes Imanaga an exciting prospect among the more analytically-inclined pitching evaluators around the game. 

The sweeper also grades out incredibly well from a pitch-shape perspective, so expect the Cubs to up its usage this season. Like most Japanese pitchers, Imanaga also throws a splitter. It's not quite as nasty as Yamamoto's, but considering the relative rarity of splitters in the big leagues right now, Imanaga's should be a sturdy third pitch. The southpaw also has a cutter, a curve and a sinker, but it's likely the Cubs trim down his arsenal a bit.

Sure, there are areas for concern — Imanaga was pretty homer-prone in Japan, he hasn't thrown over 148 innings in a season since 2019, he could struggle to adjust to the less-tacky MLB ball — but very few pitchers can offer the kind of K/BB numbers (174/24) that Imanaga can. 

He'll slot into a solid Cubs rotation that already features fifth-place Cy Young finisher Justin Steele, promising youngster Jordan Wicks and reliable veteran righties Kyle Hendricks and Jameson Taillon. Chicago also expects Cade Horton, one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, to contribute this season. It's not the best rotation in baseball, but if Steele repeats his magnificent ‘23, Imanaga hits the ground running and Wicks takes a step forward, it's a formidable group that should put the Cubs in a solid spot to contest for an NL Central title.

Jake Mintz, the louder half of @CespedesBBQ is a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He played college baseball, poorly at first, then very well, very briefly. Jake lives in New York City where he coaches Little League and rides his bike, sometimes at the same time. Follow him on Twitter at @Jake_Mintz.