Time for a car wash: Chicago gears up for long dry streak
CHICAGO - Planning the perfect time for a car wash in Chicago can be tricky. I wait for a five-day span with no precipitation.
I just realized why my car is dirtier than usual. We haven't had a 5-day streak of dry weather since the end of August and the first few days of September. If my forecast verifies, we may be at the beginning of a 7-day rain (or snow) free period. This would be the longest dry streak we have seen in more than two months.
Our Fox Model has goose eggs across the board when it comes to precipitation. It forecasts a 0% chance of rain today through Monday. I've checked other models too and most suggest no precipitation through at least next Wednesday. That would mean seven straight days with no precipitation.
Not only is it a good time to get a car wash, but it may soon be time to open that sunroof or put the top down on the convertible. We have a relatively warm span of weather ahead. Only two days of the next ten are forecast to be below average and those two days will only be a degree or two below normal.
Highs fall to the upper 40s for Friday and Saturday. We should enjoy at least eight days in a row with above-average temperatures starting on Sunday. Average highs for next week slip into the upper 40s, so we should be around 10 to 15 degrees above average most of next week.
We are in the midst of a mild streak for November with today probably being the seventh straight day with temperatures above average. We are running 3.5 degrees above average for the month so far.
The longer-range temperature outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center continue to show a strong signal for a relatively warm pattern well into November and right up until and possibly including Thanksgiving.
The 6-10 day temperature outlook has all northern Illinois and Indiana "likely above" normal overall. This covers the period from next Tuesday through the following Saturday. The forecast map seems to be on fire. We have an 80 to 90 percent probability of being above average for the period. Notice the only blue on the map that indicates an area favored to be below average is found over a portion of the Hawaiian islands.
The 8-14 day outlook keeps the warm pattern coming. We have between a 70 to 80 percent probability of being above average overall for the period. It has all of Illinois and Indiana "likely above" normal from next Thursday through the following Wednesday. That takes us right up to the day before Thanksgiving. Since both forecasts show such a strong warm signal, I think it could take at least a few days to shift to a cooler-than-average pattern if it was going to happen. If we extrapolate these forecasts out through the holiday, that means the period from Thanksgiving through the following weekend will most likely be relatively mild. Keep in mind that there may be a few cooler-than-average days sprinkled in over the next couple of weeks, but the overall outlook is for a milder-than-average period.