How miserable is this winter in Chicago?
Chicago - The first half of meteorological winter was a piece of cake. It featured mostly above-average temperatures and very little snow. Winter's tide turned last week. Six out of seven days saw snowfall for a grand total that week of 10.7". We picked up more than a third of the snowfall we get in an entire winter in just seven days. 15.4" of snow has now fallen this season, which is 2.1" above average.
The bitter blast of Arctic air that arrived on Saturday was some of the coldest air we have experienced collectively in nearly 30 years. Before it arrived, January was running nearly 6 degrees above average after a December that ended up nearly 9 degrees above average. After just two days below average in December, we are currently in a streak of six days below average this month.
The Midwest vs. Everybody X account hit the nail on the head with this meme. We are clawing out of the current cold snap and what we would have considered awful in December is welcome relief today.
The past few days have been bad enough to move our miserableness to another level. The "Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index" or AWSSI (or "misery index") calculated by the Midwest Regional Climate Center is an ongoing measure of the severity of the season. The categories in order from least miserable to most include mild, moderate, average, severe, and extreme. We were in the least miserable category of "mild" most of this winter until recently. We have now slipped down one level to "moderate". The index stands at 172. The easiest winter on record to this point had an index of 104 by today's date. The worst winter on record had an index of 632. In other words, despite this recent round of wicked weather, it could be a lot worse.
Our Fox Model long-range forecast ends our streak of below-average days on Monday. That is when we begin a streak of above-average days. This should stretch through at least seven days according to this forecast.
The longer-range temperature outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center strongly suggest that at least our temperatures for the next couple of weeks won't be making us more miserable. It is a forecast that can be applied to the entire contiguous US.
The 6-10 day temperature outlook forecasts northern Illinois and Indiana to be "likely above" normal overall. This covers the period from next Tuesday through the following Saturday. We have between an 80% to 90% probability of being above average overall. Notice that no part of the contiguous US is colored in blue, or favored to be below average.
It's the same story with the 8-14 day temperature outlook. It also has us "likely above" average. This covers the period from next Thursday through the following Wednesday. So overall, we should end the month relatively mild.
Winter misery comes in many forms. They include snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Stay tuned to see if they add more misery to what is left of our winter.