It's been a warm 2023 for Chicago so far but colder air is coming

CHICAGO - It is hard to believe 2023 will be coming to an end fairly soon. Barring anything unusual over the rest of the year, 2023 should stack up among some of the warmest years on record for Chicago.

October was the 9th above-average month out of 10 so far for us. October was a warm month for our country overall too. It was the 18th-warmest October on record for the nation. 

The average contiguous U.S. temperature was 56.9 degrees from the period of January through October. 2023 ranks as the 11th warmest on record for the first ten months of the year for the United States.  Moving beyond our country, the earth has more than a 99% chance that this year will be the warmest on record.

Year-to-date average temperature for Chicago (green line represents 2023)

Chicago started our relatively warm year with a relatively warm winter. The average temperature for the winter of 2022-2023 was 31.8 degrees, the 14th warmest winter on record (151 years of data). This past winter was among the top ten percent of our warmest winters.

Spring had an average temperature this year of 51 degrees. It was tied with three other years as the 16th warmest spring on record. Summer was another season that ended up relatively warm. 

The average temperature for summer was 73.6 degrees. It tied with two other years as the 35th warmest summer on record. It is now the 10th warmest year to date (January through September period) for Chicago in the past 65 years.

Here is the departure from average for every month so far in 2023:

Departure from average     Month

               +7.1                     January

               +5.1                    February

               -0.2                     March

               +2.1                    April

               +1.8                    May

               +0.2                    June

               +0.3                    July

               +0.5                    August

               +3.2                    September

               +3.1                    October

November has been relatively mild too. There have been only four days out of 15 so far this month that were below average. Today will be the third day in a row with highs in the 60s. Average highs for today are around 49 degrees. The month is now running 3.4 degrees above average. There are signs that a colder pattern could be coming.

Our Fox model shows a dramatic drop in temperatures coming just in time for Thanksgiving. It has our highs falling from the 60s for highs through Thursday into the 50s by the end of the week. We then fall into the 40s for Sunday through Tuesday and drop into the 30s from next Wednesday through the following Saturday. 

The longer-range temperature outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center corroborate a cooler pattern coming.

The 6-10 day temperature outlook has northern Illinois and Indiana either near normal or "leaning above" normal. This covers the period from next Monday through the following Friday. This is the first longer-range temperature outlook in several days that has painted any blue over Illinois.

The 8-14 day outlook keeps the relatively cooler pattern coming. It has all of northern Illinois and Indiana "leaning below" average. This covers the period from next Wednesday through the following Tuesday. This includes Thanksgiving, the day before, and the five days after.

It looks like this colder pattern might not last long. The 3-4 week temperature outlook takes us through the final days of November and just past the first week of December. It favors us to be above average overall for the period.

The seasonal temperature outlook that covers the three-month period from November through January also has us favored to be above average overall. So we may not need our heaviest winter jackets that often.