Safe to say Chicago's winter will end up warmer than average
It is not too early to declare this winter will end up warmer than average for Chicago.
How high up the list of the warmest winters on record it will land is the question. Five of the top 20 warmest winters on record have all occurred since the year 2000.
Based on some longer-range forecasts, this winter might also end up in that top 20 list.
December ended up nearly 9 degrees above average. January ended up a little more than a degree above average. So far this winter, there have been 51 days with above-average temperatures and just eleven with below-average temperatures.
Of all the seasons in Chicago, winter has been warming the fastest. A Climate Central study shows our winters have warmed more than 3 degrees during the period of 1970 through 2021. We are not alone. Seventy-four percent of the 246 U.S. locations analyzed can also call winter their fastest warming season.
While we are still vulnerable to occasional extreme cold, cold snaps are getting shorter and milder. Climate Central says that since 1970, the coldest day of the year has warmed on average around 7 degrees for 242 U.S. locations analyzed in another study. Brutal winter cold snaps have gotten shorter by six days on average.
Let's look ahead to see how the final month of winter may end. Every day in our Fox Model long-range high-temperature forecast is above average. Average highs during this period are between 32 and 34 degrees. This takes us through the first nearly two weeks of February. The longer-range temperature outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center support this forecast with a strong warm signal through the 14th of February.
The 6-10 day temperature outlook forecasts northern Illinois and Indiana to be "likely above" normal overall. This covers the period from next Tuesday through the following Saturday. There is a 90% to almost 100% probability of seeing warmer-than-average temperatures overall during the period.
The 8-14 day temperature outlook also shows a relatively warm winter pattern. It also has us "likely above" average. This covers the period from next Thursday through the following Wednesday. It shows an 80% to 90% probability of being warmer than average overall.
The monthly temperature outlook for the entire month of February suggests the entire month may end up warmer than average overall. It also has us "likely above" average. The milder pattern that began about eleven days ago may keep coming for the next four weeks.