Weather whiplash again for Chicago

Chicago - Ready for a virtual temperature swing of nearly 70 degrees over the next six days? Winter weather whiplash is coming.

We have not just caught up to average with snowfall this winter, we are now running above average. Recent snow has brought our total for the season to 15.4", 2.8" above average. The cold that settled in behind the snowstorm that hit Friday into Saturday is some of the worst we have seen in years. Most of the Chicago area picked up a fresh layer of around 4 to 10 inches of snow. That snow has helped lower the temperatures during this cold snap by reflecting sunlight during the day. At night, the snow layer allows any heat absorbed in it during the day to radiate back out into the atmosphere at night. This is a bitter brand of cold that flew in on a jet stream straight from the Arctic.

A rider braves freezing weather while waiting for a CTA "L" Blue Line train at California in Logan Square as temperatures remain near zero Monday, Jan. 15, 2024. (Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune) (Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune/Tribune News Service via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Here are some cold hard facts about this latest wintry blast:

• O'Hare's low of -10 on Sunday was the coldest temperature since January of 2019;
• Aurora dipped to -15 Monday morning and Romeoville fell to -12;
• Wind chills dipped down to -30 degrees or colder, the coldest wind chills since just before the Christmas of 2022;
• More than half the states in the contiguous U.S. had either a wind chill advisory or wind chill warning in effect on Monday;
• O'Hare dropped below zero around 2 a.m. Sunday;
• The Great Lakes ice cover was less than a half percent on January 1 and is now at nearly 4% meaning it has increased almost ten times over the period;
• Tuesday marks the third straight day below average, the longest streak so far this winter;
• Anchorage, Alaska will be warmer than Chicago again Tuesday.

Monday marked the second straight day with a low temperature of -10 degrees at O'Hare. The bitter cold combined with the wind to make it feel colder than -30 degrees at times. The first two days of this week were nearly 30 degrees below average overall.

This has been an abrupt shift from the mild pattern that graced us through almost the first half of meteorological winter. January had zero days with below-average temperatures before last Friday and December had only two days that dipped below average. We are now in the middle of a stretch of at least nine below-average days that started on Saturday. The good news is we will soon start a stretch of above-average days starting on Monday.

Our Fox Model has highs bouncing back into the teens Wednesday, near 20 degrees on Thursday and then a reinforcing shot of colder air coming for Friday and Saturday. A big warm up next week means highs back above average on Monday and staying there through at least Friday. Taking into consideration wind chill, next Monday will feel nearly 70 degrees warmer than this past Monday.

I can find no blue on the Climate Prediction Center's long-range temperature outlooks for the contiguous United States. That means the forecasts aren't expecting any areas to be below average overall from coast to coast. A remarkable recovery compared to the bitter cold that now sits across a large portion of our nation.

It's all browns and reds on the 6-10 day temperature outlook that has northern Illinois and Indiana to be "likely above" normal overall. It's a strong signal for the return of a milder pattern like we saw early this winter. This covers the period from next Sunday through the following Thursday.

The 8-14 day temperature outlook also has us "likely below" normal overall. Our region has the highest probability of any part of the country to be above average. This covers the period from next Tuesday through the following Monday.

It is probably wishful thinking that we are about to break the back of Old Man Winter, but at least he will relinquish his grip in a few days.