The Butterfly Effect: How one play led Bears to Caleb Williams, franchise renewal

LAKE FOREST, Ill. - Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, clad in his orange quarterback jersey, breaks the huddle on a Tuesday morning. It's preseason and training camp is in full swing, with fans lining the field at Halas Hall to catch their first glimpse of the league's No. 1 overall pick.

To say Bears fans are excited for the coming season would be an understatement.

Williams fires underneath to wide receiver Rome Odunze in a 7-on-7 period. A play later, the rookie QB hits wide receiver DJ Moore down the sideline for a long touchdown.

Cheers ring out among the crowd. The new-look Bears are here.

As I watch, I can't help but think: How did we get here? All this offensive firepower and the best roster Chicago has put together in years finally warrants the level of excitement surrounding the team.

It also made me think that none of this might have happened if it hadn't been for one singular play call.

The trajectory of the Chicago Bears changed forever on Jan. 8, 2023.

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After not one but two fourth-down conversions, one on fourth-and-12 and the next on fourth-and-20, the Houston Texans found themselves down 31-30 to the Indianapolis Colts at their place. The 44-yard desperation heave from Texans quarterback Davis Mills on fourth-and-20 sailed right through the hands of a Colts defender and right into the chest of Houston wide receiver Jordan Akins, waiting in the end zone.

It was Week 18. Lose this game to their divisional opponents and the Texans would be guaranteed the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Win, and they'd relinquish the top spot to the Chicago Bears.

After the miracle touchdown, embattled Houston head coach Lovie Smith held up two fingers on the sideline.

The Texans were going for two — and the win, leaving the first overall pick in the balance.

Smith could have rolled over here, maybe called a play with a low success rate. No one would have really been the wiser (nor could anyone have blamed a coach who was on his way out anyway) and the Texans would have their pick of quarterbacks to rebuild their franchise.

Whether it was to spite the organization that was letting him go, a little bit of nostalgia for his time and success in Chicago or just his old-school instincts to play to the final gun, Smith called timeout to make sure his offense would call the perfect play. The Texans were going for the win.

Akins lined up outside before motioning inside to a bunch formation. With trips to his right, Mills took the ball from the shotgun. After a double-move at the top of his route, Akins broke free of his defender in the end zone. Mills fired a laser beam. Akins caught it, giving the Texans a 32-31 lead they would keep for the remaining 50 seconds of the game.

Smith looked up at the scoreboard with a smirk on his face.

That one play call gifted the Bears with the first overall pick in the 2023 draft. General manager Ryan Poles then turned it into more.

Instead of drafting Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud last season, Poles elected to trade out of the top spot. The Carolina Panthers came up from the ninth overall pick, giving up picks No. 9, No. 61, their first-round pick in 2024 and a second-round pick in 2025.

Oh, and they threw in DJ Moore.

The quarterback-proof Moore went on to have the best season of his career, catching 96 passes for 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns. It was the sixth-highest yardage total among qualified receivers. The Bears had their WR1. They rewarded him this week with a four-year, $110 million extension, the largest contract in franchise history.

n the 2023 draft, after trading out of the top spot, Chicago traded down from No. 9 and selected Tennessee right tackle Darnell Wright at No. 10, picking up a 2024 fourth-rounder in the process. Wright played every offensive snap for the Bears last season. In the second round of the 2023 draft, Chicago packaged that 61st pick from Carolina with a fifth-rounder to move up to No. 56 and grab cornerback Tyrique Stevenson. The second-year player out of Miami is now listed as the Bears' starting corner opposite defensive cornerstone Jaylon Johnson.

The Panthers then proceeded to do the Bears a huge favor by having the worst record in the league last season, giving Chicago the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. That allowed the Bears to get the centerpiece to their team-building puzzle in a banner year for quarterback prospects.

It also allowed them to retain their ninth overall pick for use elsewhere, namely to acquire yet another weapon for their new franchise QB: Washington wide receiver Odunze. And while Odunze was a top-10 pick, he is Chicago's WR3 behind Moore and veteran Keenan Allen, whom the Bears acquired from the Chargers in March for a fourth-round pick, one of two they had thanks to Poles' wheeling and dealing.

I'm not sure a rookie could ask for a better depth chart of receivers.

Williams is now set up to have the best season by a Bears rookie quarterback in franchise history. Granted, the bar is on the floor for those records. If Williams passes for more than 2,200 yards and 11 touchdowns, he will officially be the best rookie passer Chicago has ever seen. 

With Williams' talent, plus the talent around him, he could do that by Halloween.

Should Williams pass for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns this season, he will officially have the best season of any Bears quarterback, ever.

If Williams should have a season like that and the Bears reap the benefits of his success in the form of wins, Lovie Smith could be responsible for some of their best football since … well, he took them to the Super Bowl in 2006.

How's that for the old ball coach helping out his former team?

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Even with everything Smith's play call has done for the Bears, here's my favorite part of this butterfly effect: hypothesizing what could have been for the Houston Texans.

If the Texans lost that final game of the 2022 season and they ended up with the first overall pick in the 2023 draft, would they still have taken C.J. Stroud? Or would they have taken Alabama's Bryce Young? The latter was considered the best quarterback in the class. It was no surprise Young went first overall. Would Houston have done the same thing the Panthers did?

If that were the case, would the Texans have come even close to what they accomplished last season? Stroud led them to a division championship and a win in the wild-card round of the playoffs. He finished with 4,108 passing yards and 23 touchdowns against just five interceptions. He elevated the offense, one that was riddled with question marks and young weapons.

Young, on the other hand, was thrown into the (dumpster) fire that was Carolina's season. Young passed for just 2,877 yards, 11 touchdowns and had 11 interceptions. The Panthers were abysmal and didn't seem to make any progress. They fired their head coach halfway through the season and will now be under the direction of a first-time head coach in Dave Canales.

Would things have been different if Carolina had traded with Chicago for the No. 2 spot instead and taken Stroud?

The Bears certainly wouldn't have gotten the haul they did for the first overall pick. It could be enough lost real estate that Moore wouldn't have been included in the deal, though Poles has said publicly that was a sticking point for him.

What if the Bears never traded with Carolina at all? Then they wouldn't have had the first overall pick this year. Or would they? Would they have been even worse off than Carolina last season if they hadn't acquired Moore?

Instead, the Bears are now on the precipice of having their best offense ever. Or it could fall spectacularly to pieces.

But none of it would have been possible without their old ball coach, Lovie Smith, and one two-point play call.

Carmen Vitali covers the NFC North for FOX Sports. Carmen had previous stops with The Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. She spent six seasons with the Bucs, including 2020, which added the title of Super Bowl Champion (and boat-parade participant) to her résumé. You can follow Carmen on Twitter at @CarmieV.